IMD Update: Possible Bay of Bengal Cyclone by Monday; AP, Odisha on Alert

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A parent low-pressure area is expected to move west-north-westwards over Bay, intensifying into a deep depression by Sunday and a cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay by Monday morning

By Vinson Kurian

Updated - October 23, 2026 at 11:50 AM.

The building Bay of Bengal cyclone (in purple and red circle to right) and the Arabian Sea ‘low’ (orange shade to left) feeding each other by Monday, as projected by the ECMWF. | Photo Credit: www.meteologix.com/in

The Bay of Bengal is brewing a potentially powerful cyclone, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) hinting at its formation by Monday as a parent low-pressure area emerged over the south-east and adjoining east-central Bay on Friday morning.

The system is expected to move west-north-westwards, intensify into a deep depression by Sunday, and become a cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay by Monday morning. It is then forecast to strengthen further and head towards the north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts over the next two days. Global models suggest it could reach at least severe cyclonic storm intensity.

Feeding each other

Meanwhile, another low-pressure area is holding sway over the south-east Arabian Sea, off the south Kerala coast, setting the stage for an intriguing interaction between the two systems.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had suggested last week that the Arabian Sea low and the developing Bay cyclone could feed off each other, helping both systems strengthen. Under that scenario, the Bay system would approach the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast, while its Arabian Sea counterpart would move northwards along the Kerala-Karnataka coast towards Goa.

IMD hints at twist

The IMD, however, envisages a different twist to the tale. Strong south-westerly flows feeding the systems could steer the Arabian Sea low back across the South Peninsula towards the south-west Bay, close to south Tamil Nadu and north Sri Lanka, from where it originated. Thereafter, it could merge with the developing cyclone over the larger Bay. Such a convergence could give the north-east monsoon another powerful burst next week, keeping the Southern Peninsula firmly in the rain belt even as the Bay system gathers strength.

Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal has cashed in on a productive rain spell right from October 1 and extending even better into north-east monsoon from October 15. | Photo Credit: Source: India Met Department

Tamil Nadu cashes in 

Another rain-bearing system is in the forecast as Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal recover impressively from a distressing south-west monsoon season between June and September. The meteorological subdivision has turned in a stellar rainfall performance in October, particularly since the north-east monsoon set in on October 15, according to IMD statistics.

The region had already moved into surplus territory from October 1, recording 23 per cent more rainfall than normal during the first 21 days of the month. With the arrival of the north-east monsoon, the surplus swelled to 109.3 per cent during October 15-21, a dramatic reversal after months of rainfall stress.

The outlook remains encouraging. The IMD has forecast normal to above-normal rainfall over the subdivision during the two weeks from October 22 to November 4, with another ‘low’ possible after the cyclone. The country as a whole is also expected to receive normal rainfall over the same period.

Mixed bag elsewhere 

Elsewhere in the region, the north-east monsoon has brought sharply contrasting fortunes, with some subdivisions staging a spirited recovery while others remain mired in rainfall deficits. Coastal Karnataka and South Interior Karnataka have made particularly striking comebacks. Coastal Karnataka’s rainfall tally swung from a 33 per cent deficit during October 1-21 to an 83 per cent surplus during October 15-21. 

South Interior Karnataka, meanwhile, turned a 39 per cent deficit into a 58 per cent surplus over the comparable periods. Other subdivisions have seen deficits narrow but remain in negative territory. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam improved from a 71 per cent deficit during October 1-21 to 33 per cent during October 15-21. North Interior Karnataka trimmed its deficit from 88 per cent to 66 per cent.

Lakshadweep in red

Lakshadweep, however, slipped further into the red, with its rainfall deficit widening from 31 per cent to 72 per cent. Kerala and Mahe fared relatively better, improving from a 20 per cent deficit to 11 per cent, bringing rainfall close to normal.

With a potentially severe cyclone taking shape in the Bay and an incoming ‘low’ from the Arabian Sea, a potential third system developing in the cyclone’s wake next week could prove pivotal for the north-east monsoon. The key question is whether developing systems can sustain the rain surge without allowing the cyclone’s destructive winds and concentrated downpours to overshadow the benefits of a distributed wet spell.

Published on October 23, 2026

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