Diesel shortage lifts India’s exports to 12-month high in October

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Diesel shipments from India hit 700,000 barrels per day (b/d) last month, compared to 620,000 b/d during September, according to Kpler data

By Rishi Ranjan Kala

Updated - October 31, 2026 at 10:39 AM. | New Delhi

An acute shortage of diesel globally aided Indian refiners to export as much as 2.90 million tonnes of the critical transport and industrial fuel during October 2026. | Photo Credit: iStockphoto

An acute shortage of diesel globally aided Indian refiners to export as much as 2.90 million tonnes of the critical transport and industrial fuel during October 2026, the highest in the last one year.

Diesel shipments from India hit 700,000 barrels per day (b/d) last month, compared to 620,000 b/d during September, Kpler data showed.

India’s October diesel exports hit their highest level since September 2025. India is capturing the global diesel supply crunch, and the October jump comes down to three factors: Refinery runs at record highs. 

Indian refineries are running above 100 per cent utilisation, helped by limited maintenance this year beyond a few turnarounds and unplanned outages, it added. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said continued disruptions to Middle East exports, compounded by lower supply from Russia and some Asian countries, cut global diesel/ gasoil availability by 1.5 mb/d in Q2 2026 and 1.7 mb/d in Q3 2026 compared with a year earlier, putting diesel markets under extreme pressure.

Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling, pointed out that high utilisation and limited maintenance allowed refiners to maximise throughput and push more barrels into the export market. 

“Max-diesel operations at mega export-oriented refineries. India’s large, complex export-focused refineries are tilting their yields toward diesel. Their scale and export infrastructure make it easy to supply Asia, Africa, Europe and even the US,” he told businessline.

Strong margins

Elevated diesel cracks make exports highly profitable, and continued access to competitively priced crude, including Russian barrels, supports refining economics further, Ritolia emphasised.

The Federal Bank of Dallas in a October commentary said that global refinery capacity declined by as much as 10 per cent, or roughly 8 million b/d, due to closure of the Strait of Hormuz, attacks from Houthi rebels in Yemen on Red Sea shipping, damaged Middle East refineries, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, and export restrictions in China and Russia.

“Indian diesel exports are expected to stay strong. Refinery runs should hold around 5.6-5.7 mb/d, with no major maintenance planned, so refiners can keep running at high utilisation and maximising diesel output. Combined with healthy margins, this supports continued strong export volumes,” Ritolia anticipated.

The offsetting factor is domestic demand. Seasonal strength, including the festive season, freight and agricultural activity, along with stable retail prices, is expected to keep domestic diesel consumption firm, he added.

“This should absorb part of the additional output and could cap export growth, so we expect exports to remain strong but not necessarily climb much beyond current levels. I see October exports as this year’s high,” he said.

Published on October 30, 2026

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